Harvard's Election 2008 Blog

For the first time since April 2008, the RCP average has McCain leading at +1.0. 

USA Today just released their poll showing McCain +10, Gallup has McCain at +3, two other polls have them at a tie. Only the "Hotline/FD" poll has Obama with a lead beyond 1 point.

(September 08, 2008) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

It would appear that the RNC actually succeeded in giving McCain a post-convention bump, despite predictions that he would not benefit from a less-than-thrilling nomination speech. What's unusual is that the Obama camp did not manage to see that huge post-convention bump that was expected from the dramatic success of the DNC. I suppose the McCain camp effectively neutralized the Dem's post-convention bump with good timing on the Palin announcement.

Could this be an "uh-oh" moment for the Obama camp?

As someone pointed out to me, it may be possible that these polls will prove inaccurate come November, as the models many of these agencies have been using undervalue the contribution of youth voters, who may actually be energized enough to Google “Voter Registration.”

And, of course, there is the consideration that it will be the polling numbers in key swing states that will ultimately make the difference.