Harvard's Election 2008 Blog

Sorry for showing up a little late to comment on the Joe Biden speech, but I spent the aftermath of the speech sobbing hysterically and then woke up in tears only to begin thesis research. Thanks, Joe.

But before I get to that, I should address Sam's last post on Hillary's speech, in which he brings up the "I guess I should mention Obama and get myself out of trouble" part of the speech. I agree that that was tactfully written and, on paper, an extremely moving use of rhetoric. Maybe I'm just biased, or maybe Hillary has lost her touch and it's painfully obvious how much she wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012. Again, I realize I am a new convert to the Obama center-left, and I may be blinded by previous prejudice, but there was something in her tone that I just didn't buy.

Same with Bill Clinton's speech. The words were there on paper. They were spoken, and they reached my ears. But perhaps due to the past- Whitewater, Rwanda, Kosovo, Monica Lewinsky, Bosnia sniper fire- no words could possibly convince me that they're being sincere, or that they are capable of such.

And nothing made the former president's sneering cynicism clearer than the purity of message in the act following him- Vice President Joe Biden and his family. Introduced by his son Beau in one of the most eloquent and appreciative expressions of respect between father and son that has ever graced the political world (take that, Luke Russert), Biden made politics about family. His speech was about love, about dignity, about all those values that I've been voting Republican for all these (two) years. Only a cold heart could have not felt moved by his resilience and call for the same from his nation.

But all this fits perfectly into the image we had of Obama's campaign before. Romantic visions of a loving, peaceful America are nothing new to the New Democrats. What really made Biden's speech golden- and what solidified my support for the Obama-Biden ticket and that of many other distraught libertarians with foreign policy concerns, is the following excerpt:

In recent days, we've once again seen the consequences of this neglect with Russia's challenge to the free and democratic country of Georgia. Barack Obama and I will end this neglect. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions, and we'll help the people of Georgia rebuild.

I've been on the ground in Georgia, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and I can tell you in no uncertain terms: this administration's policy has been an abject failure. America cannot afford four more years of this.

The reaffirmation of the Russian superpower is the greatest threat America has seen since the Cold War. Yes, 9/11 was atrocious and will live forever in infamy in our memories (especially for those of us that were right across the river when the planes crashed in), but the culprits of those crimes are disorganized and weak, splintered by the brilliant work that everyone refuses to acknowledge the Bush administration did. Joe Biden's response to this threat is to stand up to Russia, to promise that he will only take diplomacy so far- as far as possible and not an inch more.

John McCain's response? Sending Cindy over to Georgia with freshl-baked cookies, or whatever it is women do.

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"Me, me, me, I guess I should mention Barack Obama, me, me, me, Harriet Tubman"

Good job with the party unity there, Hillary. Really selfless speech, there.

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As we tread swiftly into Convention Season 2008, we should take a look at the complicated issues facing each of the candidates and see how they frame them over the next few weeks.  Here are a few:

1.        The Economy.  The Democrats have been harsh critics of the current economic situation, but many Republicans-no less John McCain-believe that the economy is fundamentally sound.  Currently, the second quarter GDP is being corrected to 2.7% annual growth, up from the estimated 1.9%, but this is largely due to more American exports transacted on a weakened dollar.  While this itself is a good sign-one recalls Mercantilist David Hume's price-specie flow mechanism, in which exports could remedy an unbalanced money supply-one can wonder if the free trade that allowed for this might start to grind with trade frictions when unoiled with low energy prices.  Unemployment is up, consumption is down, consumer confidence is down, inflation is extremely high, the dollar is weak, and domestic demand is weak.  The effectiveness of the stimulus checks is still unclear.  Given today's divided government, it will be interesting to see how these economic problems and questions are spun, and to see the solutions that the Democrats and the Republicans offer.  I hope that, faced with competitive pressures abroad, somebody will talk about education and innovation as the keys to long-term economic growth.  But we'll see what happens.

2.       Housing and Credit.  Housing prices are falling-the Case-Shiller Index, a widely regarded index of housing prices, is down 19% from the peak-and prices are expected to fall another 25-30% over the next few months.  The difficulty to secure credit has left the housing sector in crisis, affecting many types of credit, including student loans.  Falling prices also affect Americans whose principle investment is their house, and affects owners of mortgage-backed securities at home and abroad.  Pay attention at the RNC: one of the accomplishments that Bush and Rove touted for the administration was the number of Americans they put into their own homes.  We'll see how the Bush legacy is affected by the housing crisis.

3.       Energy Policy.  Oil is currently at around $120.  Just a few years ago, when oil  hung at around $20/barrel (in 2007 dollars, which is about the historical norm), oil exceeding around $30 a barrel would have been outlandish in the short term, since oil markets and politics have worked hard to ensure price stability.  Recent technological breakthroughs coupled with high oil prices now make many oil alternatives possible.  This threatens a lot of key relationships for the Republican party (the oil lobby, the automotive lobby) so it will be interesting to see how each party's promise of a new, renewable energy future is pitted against entrenched labor (the Democrats have promised 5,000,000 new green jobs) and entrenched capital.  Since it may be impossible to reach the target of under 550 ppm under the next few decades (to avoid the worst parts of climate change) without significant cutbacks in American output, decreases in energy intensity, and serious conservation efforts, we need to understand how constituents of each party think about the serious efforts required to transition to this century's energy portfolio.

4.       Health Policy.  I'm no expert on this (I look forward to reading Ho Tuan's entries on this topic), but spending is getting into the trillions and prone to increase greatly with the Baby Boomers retiring and getting old.  It is difficult for ordinary people to conceptualize putting a price on human life, or not wanting the latest and (not necessarily) greatest technologies to diagnose illnesses, no matter what the cost.  Given high costs and spotty coverage, healthcare must be rethought. 

Solutions to each of these intertwined problems are expensive and difficult.   We'll see what each party highlights at the conventions.

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I should preface this experience by noting how much irrational loathing I have for that antiquated communication device that is the telephone. It is loud, obnoxious, makes your ears sweat, and requires undivided attention for use. It has been obsolete ever since Al Gore invented the internet, and my blood usually boils whenever I am forced to use it. I have broken my fair share of cell phones due to various circumstances, but all have been via the smashing of the phone against a wall. Text messages are not exempt from this hatred- they cost 10¢ each and take way to long to write. Not to mention that they cost 10¢, and I am stingy.

So imagine how disgruntled I was when I found out that America's next president was a fan of this shameful form of communication- so much so that he was announcing his Veep via text message? Well, actually, I was a bit amused at the time. And I am compelled to tell my story, especially after a bit of conjecture by the Harvard Dems (yes, I belong to their email list) regarding the matter, where one loyal member defined the question of our generation as "Where were you when the text was sent?"

Before I start, let me state for the record that our generation classifies texts in the following categories: any text received during the day is simply a txt; any received between the hours of 11:30 PM and 2 AM is a "drunken txt", and anything after that but before dawn is a "booty txt". There is no need to explain why.

So, back to the matter at hand: where was I when Barack Obama booty txted all of America? Well, given that the text was sent at 3:30 AM, I was soundly asleep, enjoying a very pleasant dream where I was lying on a beach in Greece, listening to Elena Paparizou and feeling the sun burn my back as I sipped a strawberry daiquiri. Now, friends, going from life in mega-urban New Jersey to the wonderful shores of Ellas is truly change I can believe in, but the only change that came to me was the change from the peaceful purring of Mediterranean breeze to the obnoxious vibrating beep of my cell phone. The wretched communication instrument refused to slience until it had my undivided attention. I opened it reluctantly to see I had a message from "62262"- the numerical equivalent of the letters "Obama"- and there it was: "Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee."

Really??

At first I thought this was a prank. Surely the real Barack Obama wouldn't wake up all his supporters (yes, all his supporters are in the Eastern time zone) at 3 AM to tell them something that MSNBC had been saying for weeks. Plus, isn't Joe Biden racist or something? I didn't know- he was always too boring to investigate. Either way, someone was getting a nasty email tomorrow when I woke up and got a real Obama text saying Evan Bayh was the real pick.

But then I went back to sleep and woke up to the same exact news as last night. I even got this wonderful begging email!

I don't even have a driver's license- what do I want a car magnet for?

That was my full testimonial of the epic Barack Obama text-message stunt. And, in terms of serious political analysis, I give it a mixed review. The fact that news agencies were announcing the truth hours before the text was sent out would lose Obama swing votes that were awake at the time and feel deceived. Those that were asleep, like myself, were angered that Obama had the nerve to wake them from their sleep to tell them something that Biden himself had said was untrue all of last week. He started off his full-ticket campaign on a lie. And that, after the Iraq War debacle, doesn't really sound like change at all. Neither does putting a 35-year career senator on your ticket.

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Obama's choice of Joe Biden as his Vice President reflects a strong long-term strategy that plays to many of the concerns about Obama while keeping with the main themes of the campaign.  In Biden is a long-time Washington fixture who isn't a Washington insider; a politician who is well-known enough to be credible but has a small-enough cross-section to not drag; and someone who is vitriolic and critical enough to add a new voice to the campaign and speak his own mind, but experienced enough not to cause problems.

Biden also brings age and experience.  At 65, he brings the "oldness" the Obama campaign needs-he is closer in age to resemble John McCain's run eight years ago-without being a skeleton.

Obama's life experience in Chicago, Boston, New York City, Hawaii, and Indonesia are well-complimented by Biden's life-long experience in Wilmington, Delaware, which is as rusty as any city out there, making the combination appealing to big-city liberals, rust-belt democrats and undecideds.  It also splashes an acknowledgement of practical realism on fresh-faced Obama's saccharine, exceedingly optimistic campaign.  All of these temper concerns and criticisms that Obama is arrogant or out of touch.

And, of course, Biden himself brings a lot to the table where a lot is needed: is a heavy-hitter in foreign policy and is the Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

There are, of course, some drawbacks: the New York Times pointed out that some of his controversy has involved racial insensitivity, including racially charged comments about Obama being "clean" and "articulate," and saying that "you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent."  This alone shouldn't concern the campaign: it's Obama, after all.  Race won't sink the ship.

Also, his middle name is Robinette.  What's with that?

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During past presidential elections, the debate and fervor that accompanies them generally remains restricted to the States. The rest of the world is usually dealing with it's own problems. However, all of Europe is eagerly watching the candidates. And the man cheered on most by those on the Continent is Barack Obama.

Starting after the Iowa primaries, Europe became fascinated by the young senator. Three French newspapers (Le Monde, Libération, and Le Figaro) all featured Obama on the front page, even in the midst of President Sarcozy's tumultuous love life. The headline for the Le Monde was "The Greater America Opts for the New Man". The journal Courier International created a special issue of 97 pages dedicated to educate Europeans about Obama's plans and ideals for the U.S. as well as information about the senator's background and family. In Germany, Christoph von Marschall has written a book on the candididate, called Barack Obama, the Black Kennedy. During his recent trip to Europe, Obama's speech was greeted with applause and approval by the substantial crowd.

But what does this have impact does this have for the U.S.? While Obama still remains ahead in the polls, his lead over McCain is diminishing. A BBC news article published in July suggests that voters may feel somewhat "abandoned" by Obama. His recent visit to Europe as well as Iraq and Afghanistan have taken him away from his campaign in the U.S., decreasing his visibillity to the precious "swing states" whose people still need to know more about the senator. Obama's popularity abroad may have no effect or even a negative effect on his credibility at home. As fickle and jaded as voters are these days, Europe will have to wait in the hopes that the "black Kennedy" will win over America as he has Europe.

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