Harvard's Election 2008 Blog

Sorry for showing up a little late to comment on the Joe Biden speech, but I spent the aftermath of the speech sobbing hysterically and then woke up in tears only to begin thesis research. Thanks, Joe.

But before I get to that, I should address Sam's last post on Hillary's speech, in which he brings up the "I guess I should mention Obama and get myself out of trouble" part of the speech. I agree that that was tactfully written and, on paper, an extremely moving use of rhetoric. Maybe I'm just biased, or maybe Hillary has lost her touch and it's painfully obvious how much she wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012. Again, I realize I am a new convert to the Obama center-left, and I may be blinded by previous prejudice, but there was something in her tone that I just didn't buy.

Same with Bill Clinton's speech. The words were there on paper. They were spoken, and they reached my ears. But perhaps due to the past- Whitewater, Rwanda, Kosovo, Monica Lewinsky, Bosnia sniper fire- no words could possibly convince me that they're being sincere, or that they are capable of such.

And nothing made the former president's sneering cynicism clearer than the purity of message in the act following him- Vice President Joe Biden and his family. Introduced by his son Beau in one of the most eloquent and appreciative expressions of respect between father and son that has ever graced the political world (take that, Luke Russert), Biden made politics about family. His speech was about love, about dignity, about all those values that I've been voting Republican for all these (two) years. Only a cold heart could have not felt moved by his resilience and call for the same from his nation.

But all this fits perfectly into the image we had of Obama's campaign before. Romantic visions of a loving, peaceful America are nothing new to the New Democrats. What really made Biden's speech golden- and what solidified my support for the Obama-Biden ticket and that of many other distraught libertarians with foreign policy concerns, is the following excerpt:

In recent days, we've once again seen the consequences of this neglect with Russia's challenge to the free and democratic country of Georgia. Barack Obama and I will end this neglect. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions, and we'll help the people of Georgia rebuild.

I've been on the ground in Georgia, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and I can tell you in no uncertain terms: this administration's policy has been an abject failure. America cannot afford four more years of this.

The reaffirmation of the Russian superpower is the greatest threat America has seen since the Cold War. Yes, 9/11 was atrocious and will live forever in infamy in our memories (especially for those of us that were right across the river when the planes crashed in), but the culprits of those crimes are disorganized and weak, splintered by the brilliant work that everyone refuses to acknowledge the Bush administration did. Joe Biden's response to this threat is to stand up to Russia, to promise that he will only take diplomacy so far- as far as possible and not an inch more.

John McCain's response? Sending Cindy over to Georgia with freshl-baked cookies, or whatever it is women do.

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As we tread swiftly into Convention Season 2008, we should take a look at the complicated issues facing each of the candidates and see how they frame them over the next few weeks.  Here are a few:

1.        The Economy.  The Democrats have been harsh critics of the current economic situation, but many Republicans-no less John McCain-believe that the economy is fundamentally sound.  Currently, the second quarter GDP is being corrected to 2.7% annual growth, up from the estimated 1.9%, but this is largely due to more American exports transacted on a weakened dollar.  While this itself is a good sign-one recalls Mercantilist David Hume's price-specie flow mechanism, in which exports could remedy an unbalanced money supply-one can wonder if the free trade that allowed for this might start to grind with trade frictions when unoiled with low energy prices.  Unemployment is up, consumption is down, consumer confidence is down, inflation is extremely high, the dollar is weak, and domestic demand is weak.  The effectiveness of the stimulus checks is still unclear.  Given today's divided government, it will be interesting to see how these economic problems and questions are spun, and to see the solutions that the Democrats and the Republicans offer.  I hope that, faced with competitive pressures abroad, somebody will talk about education and innovation as the keys to long-term economic growth.  But we'll see what happens.

2.       Housing and Credit.  Housing prices are falling-the Case-Shiller Index, a widely regarded index of housing prices, is down 19% from the peak-and prices are expected to fall another 25-30% over the next few months.  The difficulty to secure credit has left the housing sector in crisis, affecting many types of credit, including student loans.  Falling prices also affect Americans whose principle investment is their house, and affects owners of mortgage-backed securities at home and abroad.  Pay attention at the RNC: one of the accomplishments that Bush and Rove touted for the administration was the number of Americans they put into their own homes.  We'll see how the Bush legacy is affected by the housing crisis.

3.       Energy Policy.  Oil is currently at around $120.  Just a few years ago, when oil  hung at around $20/barrel (in 2007 dollars, which is about the historical norm), oil exceeding around $30 a barrel would have been outlandish in the short term, since oil markets and politics have worked hard to ensure price stability.  Recent technological breakthroughs coupled with high oil prices now make many oil alternatives possible.  This threatens a lot of key relationships for the Republican party (the oil lobby, the automotive lobby) so it will be interesting to see how each party's promise of a new, renewable energy future is pitted against entrenched labor (the Democrats have promised 5,000,000 new green jobs) and entrenched capital.  Since it may be impossible to reach the target of under 550 ppm under the next few decades (to avoid the worst parts of climate change) without significant cutbacks in American output, decreases in energy intensity, and serious conservation efforts, we need to understand how constituents of each party think about the serious efforts required to transition to this century's energy portfolio.

4.       Health Policy.  I'm no expert on this (I look forward to reading Ho Tuan's entries on this topic), but spending is getting into the trillions and prone to increase greatly with the Baby Boomers retiring and getting old.  It is difficult for ordinary people to conceptualize putting a price on human life, or not wanting the latest and (not necessarily) greatest technologies to diagnose illnesses, no matter what the cost.  Given high costs and spotty coverage, healthcare must be rethought. 

Solutions to each of these intertwined problems are expensive and difficult.   We'll see what each party highlights at the conventions.

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