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Harvard's Election 2008 Blog

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I certainly don't agree with many of Sarah Palin's political views.  However, I do feel images, such as the one above are innapropriate.  Amusing certainly, but innapropriate. Whatever Palin's veiws on sex-ed and the consequences of those views for the public, her daughter made a choice to have unprotected sex.  This decision, no matter how poorly it reflects on her mother, is not an election issue. It is a family issue, which should be delt with in private.  Her mother's life and choices may be fair game, but Bristol Palin's choices and mistakes are not relevent to the election. She should be allowed privacy to deal with her pregnancy and future life as a married teen mom.


As with each day we've started here at the Republican National Convention, Wednesday began with a certain measure of excitement and uncertainty. Excitement, of course, because of the nature of the event; uncertainty, because the Republican National Convention planning committee has been pretty awful about providing schedule details in light of the cancellation on Monday. We started the day at the Mall of America where we ran into numerous Massachusetts and California delegates who were eating and shopping. There are no clothing taxes and it's a big, big mall. It's to be expected.

We then went back to the Crowne Plaza in Bloomington, which is the hotel of the Massachusetts and West Virginia delegations and had become our unofficial center of operations outside of our host's house. As we waited for the GOP Express to take us to the Xcel Energy Center, we got to interview Russ Weeks, who is trying to be the third Republican governor of West Virginia in seventy years. He believes that West Virginia is becoming more conservative (they voted for Bush both times) and is ready for conservative leadership, especially because of the proven energy reserves. "Coal is king in West Virginia," Weeks said.

It was interesting to see the myriad ways that the Harvard name falls upon conservative ears. There is a paradoxical response to the name. On the one hand, Harvard, famous for being liberal and playing host to the "East coast Ivy-league educated elite" is often villainized by conservatives as producing uncommon commentators who are out of touch with real, working people. One West Virginian used the Harvard credential as an excuse to challenge us to produce specific production facts about oil and coal. Suspicions we had about the statistics he was naming turned out to be proven by Googling some of the questions he asked us. On the other hand, the Harvard name commands a certain respect, admiration and generous willingness to help us out. Mostly, our reception at the RNC was warm with a few people treating us just like anybody else at the convention, while others would bend over backwards to help through tight spots and plead to well-connected people to get us in to exclusive hot spots around the convention. Meeting with members of the Texas delegation, dropping the name "Harvard Independent" guaranteed an immediate request for an interview on the delegate floor.

We took the GOP Express to the Xcel Center and started tracking down some of the people we had met previously. The larger-than-yesterday crowd had settled in for the second full day of convention activities, and speaking to people it seemed that everybody had settled into the groove of the convention; it lacked the novelty of the first day.

We walked past a room labeled "Chapel" and decided to go inside. It is a small room with shaded windows, and one thirty-year-old woman with a Fox News hat and McCain t-shirt praying. Looking up, we saw a gigantic wooden cross with Christian prayer material elsewhere on the table. For a Jew and a conservative Buddhist, we couldn't help but think that this was a side of the Republican party that they try to suppress during the conventions. There were no alternatives for other religions.

Exiting the chapel, we told the staff our concern: if there is a single chapel under the big tent that is supposed to be the GOP, there should be a space for people of other religions to pray. The chapel was a sign that the GOP was committed to representing people of faith, but only people of the Christian faith. The chapel staff was trite: "I'm sorry we can't help you."

The ethnic makeup of the convention also merits some words. The smaller speakers of the convention-certain CEOs, some citizens, and others who were given opportunities to speak on the Republican podium-would make it seem like the GOP is a diverse crew of multiracial American conservatives. The story told on the podium is very different than the story told on the delegate floor, or on the stands. Sad to tell, the Republicans as represented at the convention are still very much the white, Christian party. The non-white speakers could as well be speaking in spite of their ethnicity, not because of it and not indifferently toward it.

After watching the Romney speech from the club level, we split up. Nick went off to the Jewish Republican Coalition on the Suite level, while Tuan returned to the media viewing post in the back to watch the Huckabee speech with one of the Massachusetts delegate's wife.

On the way, Tuan went to use the restroom, and ran into to Tom Brokaw taking a bathroom break between broadcasts. Washing hands next to Tom, Tuan, star struck, asked Tom about the Romney speech. The discussion went to the effect of:

"Hello Tom, how's the broadcast this evening?"
[washing hands, gives that signature Tom Brokaw smirk] "Thank you for asking. It's been going well."
"What are your thoughts on the Romney speech?"
"It was a good speech. This will certainly not be the last we've seen of Romney, and he made that very clear tonight." [reaches for paper towels to dry hands]

Huckabee again demonstrated his ability to appeal to working class social conservatives with his usual brand of witty retorts and charm. He reasserted his support for McCain, appealed to some of Obama's own remarks (followed by criticism of Obama's "Excellent Adventure to Europe") and repeated many of his usual talking points from the primaries. Admittedly, not everyone from Tuan's post standing with guests of the Massachusetts delegation (with the media bloggers on the phone typing away on their laptops) were huge fans of Huckabee. The previous night, one of the delegates at the CNN Grille rolled their eyes at the mere comment that he was coming to talk ("Do not get me started on Huckabee..."). Despite that, however, everyone acknowledged what a "swell guy" Huckabee was (the ultimate working man's man). The previous night, Huckabee had been playing at one of the bars in town taking autographs and "chillin'" with the delegates. The response to Huckabee can best be summarized as one of "He won't be President, but gee whiz, he's just such an awesome guy..." The ultimate highpoint of the speech came when Huckabee pointed out that Palin had received more votes running for mayor of Wasilla than Biden had received running for President of the United States, at which point all 20,000 in the hall stood up roaring with applause. Definitely well-received, but the immediate response among from the guests was "Can someone check those numbers? It would be awesome if it were true."

Nick, meanwhile, watched the speech with The Jewish Republican Coalition, a thin coalition of New York and Midwestern Jews who were placed directly behind the TV screen behind the podium, with a blocked view of the speeches and events. One woman was a New York trial lawyer who used to be a prosecutor until she became a criminal defense lawyer and did medical malpractice law. She made it clear that despite concerns leveled about the GOP excluding non-Christian religions at their own prayer sites, the Jews of America must unite to vote John McCain president because he is the only candidate who will adequately defend Israel against its enemies. Barack Obama, she said, has agreed to meet with Ahmadinejad without preconditions, and has supported plans for a divided Jerusalem. She praised Christian conservatives for supporting Israel unconditionally. To her, and the others in this room, the choice was clear, even though there was a palpable grunt when Mike Huckabee, the speaker at the time, said that "the 3 sacred heroes were Jesus, Elvis, and FDR, not necessarily in that order."

For each of these speeches, there were a few characteristic commonalities that created assured crowd reactions. Whenever the speakers played to standard conservative mainstays, the crowd went nuts. There were a few arguments in the typical speech, like how Obama's cutting taxes on families but raising them on businesses has the effect of raising taxes on most families. But other than that, when the speakers weren't telling conventioneers how they get American values and the Democrats don't, they wielded heavy sarcasm to devalue the Democrats and energize the crowd.

During the Giuliani speech, the crowd started chanting "drill, baby, drill," in response to Giuliani's assurances of McCain energy independence. Most (definitely not all) of the Republicans here acknowledged that oil would have to be a bridge to the next energy technology. With "drill, baby, drill," one is compelled to ask exactly what these people have in mind.

Security is no joke to these Republicans. When Giuliani stated that Obama wanted to forfeit to Osama bin Ladin, one delegate shouted "never," and many others followed him. Giuliani's discussions of about Obama's alleged fear of using the phrase "Islamic terrorism" or "victory" in discussing the war on terror provoked similar jeers. In a complete turn-around, the Republicans have gone on the offensive with Palin's experience, and took it as granted that she is a tremendously experienced executive.

We did meet some other cool people: The Daily Show's John Oliver, Conan O'Brien's Triumph the Comic Insult Dog, and others. We also had some interesting conversations with Ron Paul and John McCain supporters who were supporters of their candidates but, when asked, didn't totally understand their policies.

In the end, despite the fanfare of the night, there were many people we spoke with who had private reservations. The Palin speech was very well-received, though many still questioned her policies and experience.

We look forward to the final day of the convention, with the newly built podium, where McCain will accept the nomination.


There has been some chatter around here of a Romney revolt: apparently, there had, at one point, been talk that Romney was sent home at McCain's request because numerous state delegations wanted to nominate Mitt Romney for vice president, instead of the now-embattled vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.  Romney is scheduled to speak today about John McCain, change, big government, and McCain-Palin, among other topics.  According to the RNC, about Palin, he will say that:

"Just like you, there has never been a day when I was not proud to be an American. We inherited the greatest nation in the history of the earth. It is our burden and privilege to preserve it, to renew its spirit so that its noble past is prologue to its glorious future. To this we are all dedicated and I firmly believe by the providence of the Almighty, that we will succeed. President McCain and Vice President Palin will keep America as it has always been - the hope of the world."  

Very general and not exactly glowing praise of Palin.

Yesterday, Romney spoke to the Massachusetts delegation about how he is in this campaign for the cause of restoring conservative values in Washington and not because it's about him.

If something were to go down today-and we remain skeptical that it will-it could cause profound change for the GOP in the long run, though it may damage the campaign this time.


As you'd expect after such a surprise pick, I've heard a lot of reactions to the Sarah Palin pick flying around - some supportive, some skeptical.

Most of the  responses seem to focus on Palin's inexperience and how it will affect the campaign.  I've heard people say Obama's inexperience will make it hard for him to attack Palin for being inexperienced (see below), and I've heard people say Palin's inexperience will make it hard for McCain to attack Obama for being inexperienced (see below!).  There is, of course, a big difference between the impact of "inexperience" on the top of the ticket and "inexperience" on the bottom, but McCain's nominee was always going to face extra scrutiny on this count because of McCain's age, something his campaign obviously realized.  And maybe, in Palin's case, the argument's not about experience itself.  Maybe "picturing a young, attractive, kooky, female governor from Alaska who has an accent straight out of Fargo in the White House is going to be a much bigger leap for many voters than picturing Barack Obama there."

To some, of course, all this analysis can be a bit overwhelming.  To quote Palin's father Chuck, "I'd rather go moose hunting than be involved with politics."

Law profs have been among those blogging it up.  Orin Kerr is "cautiously optimistic" about Palin and wonders if a norm is shifting and tickets with two white men are going to become relatively rare.  Jim Lindgren points to an online forum for Hillary supporters who are apparently gushing with support for Palin.  On the other hand, David Post is betting that she'll make a major gaffe during the campaign, and Dan Markel voiced the same thought that's been in the back of my mind: whether picking a comparative unknown might eventually lead to the same sort of backlash that doomed Harriet Miers.  (Choosing a running mate isn't so different from nominating Supreme Court justices or Cabinet officials, after all: it's the first indicator of what personal qualities a presidential candidate might look for in such an appointee.)

Forwarded from the Pforzheimer House email list: Palin wrote an op-ed in January for the New York Times which opposed placing polar bears on the endangered species list. 

And over at fivethirtyeight.com, Steve Quinn muses that Palin might bait Joe Biden into a particularly devastating gaffe in the vice presidential debate, while Nate Silver probably has the quote of the day: "Palin is the most manifestly ordinary person ever to be nominated for a major party ticket."  Whether that will work in her favor (and McCain's) remains to be seen.

 At the end of the day, I still think picking Palin was a smart move, but it's definitely also a gamble.


It's Palin...

Posted by: Adam Hallowell in Vice PresidentRepublicansMcCain on

ahallow

... says the New York Times.

She'd been mentioned a lot earlier this summer but had unaccountably fallen off the radar over the past week or two.  But I think she's a pretty smart pick, as a Washington outsider and especially as someone who mirrors McCain's "maverick" storyline.  She's challenged Alaska's Republican establishment and - get this - personally killed the Bridge to Nowhere.  It'll be interesting to see whether the campaign tries to ignore the Ted Stevens controversy or actively campaigns on it (citing the fact that Palin supported the probe into Stevens's finances).

Romney was probably just too rich to be picked (imagine Housegate II).  I don't know that much about Pawlenty, positive or negative.  Lieberman would have been a dramatic and gutsy pick: it would have strengthened McCain's appeal to independents immeasurably and made it easier to cast Obama-Biden as far-left liberals, but it would have outraged the conservative base (as Palin notably does not).  And it would have made for a very awkward convention in St. Paul.

I'm unconvinced that this makes it a slam dunk for McCain to bring in disaffected Hillary supporters, but picking a woman certainly couldn't hurt.

My thoughts on Obama's speech and the DNC to follow later today.  (See, this was exactly why McCain announced today!  The one way to draw the spotlight 12 hours after Obama's speech.  A few people speculated that he'd do it yesterday, overshadowing the speech, but that would have looked really bad.  Better to do it today.)


Sorry for showing up a little late to comment on the Joe Biden speech, but I spent the aftermath of the speech sobbing hysterically and then woke up in tears only to begin thesis research. Thanks, Joe.

But before I get to that, I should address Sam's last post on Hillary's speech, in which he brings up the "I guess I should mention Obama and get myself out of trouble" part of the speech. I agree that that was tactfully written and, on paper, an extremely moving use of rhetoric. Maybe I'm just biased, or maybe Hillary has lost her touch and it's painfully obvious how much she wants Obama to lose so she can run in 2012. Again, I realize I am a new convert to the Obama center-left, and I may be blinded by previous prejudice, but there was something in her tone that I just didn't buy.

Same with Bill Clinton's speech. The words were there on paper. They were spoken, and they reached my ears. But perhaps due to the past- Whitewater, Rwanda, Kosovo, Monica Lewinsky, Bosnia sniper fire- no words could possibly convince me that they're being sincere, or that they are capable of such.

And nothing made the former president's sneering cynicism clearer than the purity of message in the act following him- Vice President Joe Biden and his family. Introduced by his son Beau in one of the most eloquent and appreciative expressions of respect between father and son that has ever graced the political world (take that, Luke Russert), Biden made politics about family. His speech was about love, about dignity, about all those values that I've been voting Republican for all these (two) years. Only a cold heart could have not felt moved by his resilience and call for the same from his nation.

But all this fits perfectly into the image we had of Obama's campaign before. Romantic visions of a loving, peaceful America are nothing new to the New Democrats. What really made Biden's speech golden- and what solidified my support for the Obama-Biden ticket and that of many other distraught libertarians with foreign policy concerns, is the following excerpt:

In recent days, we've once again seen the consequences of this neglect with Russia's challenge to the free and democratic country of Georgia. Barack Obama and I will end this neglect. We will hold Russia accountable for its actions, and we'll help the people of Georgia rebuild.

I've been on the ground in Georgia, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and I can tell you in no uncertain terms: this administration's policy has been an abject failure. America cannot afford four more years of this.

The reaffirmation of the Russian superpower is the greatest threat America has seen since the Cold War. Yes, 9/11 was atrocious and will live forever in infamy in our memories (especially for those of us that were right across the river when the planes crashed in), but the culprits of those crimes are disorganized and weak, splintered by the brilliant work that everyone refuses to acknowledge the Bush administration did. Joe Biden's response to this threat is to stand up to Russia, to promise that he will only take diplomacy so far- as far as possible and not an inch more.

John McCain's response? Sending Cindy over to Georgia with freshl-baked cookies, or whatever it is women do.

 


Pandering

Posted by: Nick Krasney in McCainAds on

Nick Krasney

 One of McCain's new ads (one of the few positive ones I've seen so far):

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4KIvRTg6KQ&feature=user 

Methinks McCain anticipated a conversation like this:

A: "McCain has been really negative on the campaign trail.  Didn't he call for a 'respectful campaign?'"

 B:  "What are you talking about?  Didn't you see that one really gracious one where he congratulated Obama?"

A:  "Oh, yeah.  Well, that shut me up."

 


"Me, me, me, I guess I should mention Barack Obama, me, me, me, Harriet Tubman"

 

Good job with the party unity there, Hillary. Really selfless speech, there.


As we tread swiftly into Convention Season 2008, we should take a look at the complicated issues facing each of the candidates and see how they frame them over the next few weeks.  Here are a few:

1.        The Economy.  The Democrats have been harsh critics of the current economic situation, but many Republicans-no less John McCain-believe that the economy is fundamentally sound.  Currently, the second quarter GDP is being corrected to 2.7% annual growth, up from the estimated 1.9%, but this is largely due to more American exports transacted on a weakened dollar.  While this itself is a good sign-one recalls Mercantilist David Hume's price-specie flow mechanism, in which exports could remedy an unbalanced money supply-one can wonder if the free trade that allowed for this might start to grind with trade frictions when unoiled with low energy prices.  Unemployment is up, consumption is down, consumer confidence is down, inflation is extremely high, the dollar is weak, and domestic demand is weak.  The effectiveness of the stimulus checks is still unclear.  Given today's divided government, it will be interesting to see how these economic problems and questions are spun, and to see the solutions that the Democrats and the Republicans offer.  I hope that, faced with competitive pressures abroad, somebody will talk about education and innovation as the keys to long-term economic growth.  But we'll see what happens.

2.       Housing and Credit.  Housing prices are falling-the Case-Shiller Index, a widely regarded index of housing prices, is down 19% from the peak-and prices are expected to fall another 25-30% over the next few months.  The difficulty to secure credit has left the housing sector in crisis, affecting many types of credit, including student loans.  Falling prices also affect Americans whose principle investment is their house, and affects owners of mortgage-backed securities at home and abroad.  Pay attention at the RNC: one of the accomplishments that Bush and Rove touted for the administration was the number of Americans they put into their own homes.  We'll see how the Bush legacy is affected by the housing crisis.

3.       Energy Policy.  Oil is currently at around $120.  Just a few years ago, when oil  hung at around $20/barrel (in 2007 dollars, which is about the historical norm), oil exceeding around $30 a barrel would have been outlandish in the short term, since oil markets and politics have worked hard to ensure price stability.  Recent technological breakthroughs coupled with high oil prices now make many oil alternatives possible.  This threatens a lot of key relationships for the Republican party (the oil lobby, the automotive lobby) so it will be interesting to see how each party's promise of a new, renewable energy future is pitted against entrenched labor (the Democrats have promised 5,000,000 new green jobs) and entrenched capital.  Since it may be impossible to reach the target of under 550 ppm under the next few decades (to avoid the worst parts of climate change) without significant cutbacks in American output, decreases in energy intensity, and serious conservation efforts, we need to understand how constituents of each party think about the serious efforts required to transition to this century's energy portfolio.

4.       Health Policy.  I'm no expert on this (I look forward to reading Ho Tuan's entries on this topic), but spending is getting into the trillions and prone to increase greatly with the Baby Boomers retiring and getting old.  It is difficult for ordinary people to conceptualize putting a price on human life, or not wanting the latest and (not necessarily) greatest technologies to diagnose illnesses, no matter what the cost.  Given high costs and spotty coverage, healthcare must be rethought. 

Solutions to each of these intertwined problems are expensive and difficult.   We'll see what each party highlights at the conventions.


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 McCain's campagn has come out with this new ad in order to highlight Obama's alleged arrogance, and sarcastically jab at his popularity and bombast as the root of a potential Messiah complex.

For McCain to do this would take advantage of early data that suggests that Obama's displaying presidential qualities this early on in the game causes some to percieve him as elitist/arrogant and would therefore energize them to support McCain, despite the fact that they might otherwise stay home.  I'll post that data when I have time to find it.

But I'm not sure it's effective.  John McCain's name appears at the end of it, but since it is not televised, McCain does not have to endorse this wholly sarcastic web ad himself.  Still, take a look at each of the claims:

  • "A nation healed, a world repaired."
  • "We are the ones we've been waiting for."
  •  "I have become a symbol of America returning to its finest traditions."
  • Obama has no doubts.
  • "A light will shine down from somewhere...you will recieve an epiphany...I have to vote for Barack!"
  • Something about the planet healing.

Then a clip from The 10 Commandments urging to "behold His mighty hand..."

And then it asks if this person "is ready to lead?"

Well, why the hell not?  It's sarcastic, but what about it suggests that Obama isn't ready to lead, even if he is jumping the gun?  Looking at the list, and then asking if Obama is ready to lead, makes me consider the converse of these things.  So McCain stands for "a nation wounded, a world in disrepair?"  Top-down politics?  America not returning to its finest traditions?

Maybe that's why McCain doesn't allow his face in there.  While this may help the short game, it is probably not a good idea for a Republican challenger who is trying to urge change in a different direction to confound proactive politics with arrogance.  That will paint McCain into a sharp contrast with Obama, which would put him in league with an unpopular status quo.


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